Nuclear power worldwide is also affected by Russia’s war in Ukraine
By Marta Vetier and Jessica Jewell
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global and European energy markets. While most of the attention has focused on the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and oil supplies, Russia is also at the center of global nuclear power. The crisis could both push countries to expand nuclear power to reduce dependence on imported fuels but also complicate the use and expansion of nuclear power in Europe and beyond.
As we discuss in a previous entry, several countries plan to expand nuclear power to replace gas and coal-fired generation while meeting their climate targets. Nuclear expansion has been discussed in France, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and the UK, and Belgium extended the lifetime of two reactors set to be closed in 2025. However, the nuclear energy cycle – from building plants to the nuclear fuel supply – is also heavily dominated by Russia, and future sanctions could impact existing and planned nuclear power plants.
In particular, our research has shown that Russia dominates international cooperation between countries related to nuclear power plant construction, reactor and fuel supply, decommissioning and waste. Russia acts as a supplier in about half of such cooperation, see the figure below.
Network of international concrete technological nuclear cooperation (nuclear power plant construction and operation; reactor supply; fuel cycle; and decommissioning and waste). The size of each country is proportional to the number of cooperation agreements the country has signed. Source: Jewell et al. 2019.
At the time of writing this post, Russia is behind nuclear projects in 10 other countries (see table below). While there are no international sanctions in place directly targeting Russia’s nuclear industry, sanctions against Rosatom, Russia’s state owned nuclear power company, are being discussed in the US, and have been suggested by the European Parliament. Yet some countries have already taken national action: Finland has cancelled its plans for a Russia-backed nuclear power plant, and by our estimation sanctions could directly affect projects in another five countries.
| Country | Reactor Name | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | Rooppur 1 and 2 | Risk of delay due to financial sanctions |
| Belarus | Ostrovets 2 | The country is not likely to implement sanctions against Russia |
| China | Tianwan 7 and 8, and Xudabao 3 and 4 | The country is not likely to implement sanctions against Russia |
| Finland | Hanhikivi 1 | Cancelled due to war |
| Hungary | Paks 5 and 6 | Hungary is set to move ahead with the project but some argue financial sanctions could delay the project |
| India | Kudankulam 3, 4, 5 and 6 | The country is not likely to implement sanctions against Russia |
| Iran | Bushehr 2 | The country is not likely to implement sanctions against Russia |
| Russia | Kursk 2-1 and 2-2 | These are two projects in the Russian Federation itself |
| Slovakia | Mochovce 3 and 4 | Reactors 3 and 4 are set to start generation in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Concerns have already been raised about servicing and fuel supply of Slovakia’s existing plants. |
| Turkey | Ankkuyu 1, 2, and 3 | Risk of delay due to financial sanctions |
| Ukraine | Khmelnitski 3 and 4 | The war will likely to make construction impossible |
Overview of ongoing Russian-built nuclear projects. Compiled from the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) database, the World Nuclear Association’s database and own analysis.
Some nuclear power plants which are under construction or planned have already been affected by financial sanctions. Russia has recently been pitching an all-in-one offer of “build, own and operate” (BOO) for nuclear power plants aimed at countries that do not have the financial capacity or know-how to build their own plants. Such a BOO system is behind Bangladesh’s Rooppur project, Turkey’s Akkuyu project and Hungary’s Paks-II project. Financial sanctions imposed on Russia’s banking system are threatening the timely completion of nuclear power plants in Turkey and Bangladesh.
Additionally, many operating nuclear power plants, both Russian-built and those built by other countries are dependent on Russia for nuclear fuel and/or uranium supplies. Discussions to ban uranium imports from Russia are already on the table in the EU and the US. Furthermore, sanctions could also affect existing nuclear power plants which rely on Russia for spare parts, operation and maintenance, and fuel supply. Several eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia) have their nuclear power plants serviced through Skoda JR which is owned by the Russian GazpromBank. Although the bank is not fully banned in the EU, it is among sanctioned financial institutions in 2014 and executives of GazpromBank are already sanctioned in the US. This connection has raised concerns for some countries about the security of nuclear fuel supply in the face of new sanctions.
Thus it is not only Russian oil and gas which lies at the center of the global energy landscape but also Russian nuclear power. Future sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine could affect operating, in-construction, and planned nuclear power projects. Keeping existing nuclear power plants running without relying on Russia for know-how and fuel supply requires coordinated international effort to replace servicing and nuclear fuel supply. However, in the past, replacing nuclear fuel with other manufacturers’ equipment has proved difficult.
Countries with nuclear power plants which are planned or under construction may decide to cancel their plans (as Finland has done), which on the one hand could trigger electricity supply concerns. On the other hand, these developments may open the door for other suppliers of nuclear technology. Soon after the war started, Joe Biden met with Poland’s president Andrzej Duda to forge a new partnership on nuclear power which could be good news for the US’ flagging nuclear industry. France, the US, China, the Republic of Korea and Japan are all viable reactor suppliers, albeit not offering Russia’s catchy build-own-operate business model.
The current crisis could lead to shifts in supplies of nuclear technologies which reverberate for decades to come.
