Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

M. Tavoni, E. Kriegler, K. Riahi, D. P. van Vuuren, T. Aboumahboub, A. Bowen, K. Calvin, E. Campiglio, T. Kober, J. Jewell, G. Luderer, G. Marangoni, D. McCollum, M. van Sluisveld, A. Zimmer & B. van der Zwaan. (2014). Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models. Nature Climate Change, 5 (2), 119-126. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2475.

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2 °C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.