POLET at the International Energy Workshop 2024: Future growth of wind and solar power projected by historical national experience
Avi Jakhmola discusses on-going POLET research on projecting global renewables deployment using national data
On 26-28 June 2024, Avi Jakhmola presented ongoing POLET research on empirically-grounded projections for global onshore wind and solar PV deployment at the International Energy Workshop (IEW) organised by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in Bonn, Germany. He demonstrated a new method which uses national deployment data to project quasi-probabilistic paths for solar and wind power at the global scale.
The IEW provides an annual venue for scholars and researchers to compare modelling tools, to discuss modelling advances for emerging energy sector issues, and to observe new trends in the global energy sector. A recurring theme at this conference was the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge announced at the last COP28 in Dubai, which aims to triple global installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 to keep the 1.5°C climate target within reach. Solar PV and wind power have leapt to the forefront of the carbon-neutral energy transition and are expected to provide a bulk of the capacity additions required to fulfil the pledge.
In his talk, Avi Jakhmola highlighted the uncertainties around the future growth trajectories of solar PV and onshore wind power and the challenges of using historical data to project future technology deployment. He presented recent POLET research which addresses these gaps by developing a method to use data from individual countries at more advanced phases of adoption to make quasi-probabilistic projections for future global deployment. Our results demonstrate that the current trajectories of global onshore wind and solar growth are not on track to fulfil the recent renewable pledge and meet the 1.5°C target. By quantifying the gap between the level of deployment necessary for the targets and what is likely under present conditions, our analysis helps assess the magnitude of policy effort needed to accelerate growth to the required speed and scale.
Below is the title of the presentation:
Avi Jakhmola, Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko, and Aleh Cherp. “Future growth of wind and and solar power projected by historical national experience”
