Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: results from six IAMs

J. Jewell, A. Cherp, V. Vinichenko, N. Bauer, T. Kober, D. McCollum, D.P. van Vuuren, B. van der Zwaan. (2013). Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: results from six IAMs. Climate Change Economics, 4(4), 1340011. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400113.

This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.