Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: an assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices

J. Jewell, A. Cherp & K. Riahi. (2014). Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: an assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices. Energy Policy, 65, 743-760. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.051.

How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 “low-carbon” scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables.

Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: results from six IAMs

J. Jewell, A. Cherp, V. Vinichenko, N. Bauer, T. Kober, D. McCollum, D.P. van Vuuren, B. van der Zwaan. (2013). Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: results from six IAMs. Climate Change Economics, 4(4), 1340011. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400113.

This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.