Collaborative Scenario Planning Workshop at Lund University
31 March 2025
In March, we convened a workshop under our NEW STEPS project. In this project we aim to explore feasible pathways for low-carbon technology growth in Sweden, building upon POLET's extensive previous work and the energy system model developed at Chalmers University.
During the workshop we agreed to develop a suite of four scenarios to explore the tradeoffs and synergies between different technological options Sweden is considering.
NEWSTEPS researchers discussing feasible pathways for low-carbon technology growth in Sweden at Lund University
The four scenarios are:
A nuclear energy-focused scenario, in line with recent political discussions in Sweden,
A scenario pushing growth of onshore wind power at maximum feasible rates,
An offshore wind power-centered scenario that would show what would happen if Sweden developed offshore wind power as fast as pioneering countries, such as the UK, have done,
An integrated scenario maximizing growth opportunities across all three technologies.
Each scenario will be grounded in empirical evidence on maximum feasible growth rates and costs, building upon the POLET team's earlier and ongoing work. This will allow the teams to integrate socio-technical realities into techno-economic models.
During the workshop, three presentations set the stage for our discussions. Joel Gordon (POLET postdoctoral researcher at Lund University) presented his emerging research on small modular nuclear reactors, and Tim Kazlou (POLET PhD candidate at Bergen University) offered insights into feasible growth of offshore wind power. Lisa Göransson and Simon Öberg (both from Chalmers University's Energy Technologies Division) then shared their recently developed Swedish energy scenarios: one scenario deliberately limiting offshore wind power in the Baltic Sea, the other forcing 6 GW of nuclear power, both scenarios mirroring recent energy policy discussions in Sweden. These presentations provided scientific and technical foundations for our subsequent scenario planning workshop.
Under the NEW STEPS project, the POLET team is collaborating closely with energy system modellers Lisa Göransson and Simon Öberg from Chalmers University's Energy Technology Division. As the project advances, we hope not only to make scientific advances but also to contribute to understanding and shaping Sweden's energy future.