Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts: implications for climate mitigation pathways

V. Vinichenko, J. Jewell, J. Jacobsson, A. Cherp. (2023). Historical diffusion of nuclear, wind and solar power in different national contexts: implications for climate mitigation pathways. Environmental Research Letters 18, 094066. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf47a

Climate change mitigation requires rapid expansion of low-carbon electricity but there is a disagreement on whether available technologies such as renewables and nuclear power can be scaled up sufficiently fast. Here we analyze the diffusion of nuclear (from the 1960s), as well as wind and solar (from the 1980–90s) power. We show that all these technologies have been adopted in most large economies except major energy exporters, but solar and wind have diffused across countries faster and wider than nuclear. After the initial adoption, the maximum annual growth for nuclear power has been 2.6% of national electricity supply (IQR 1.3%–6%), for wind − 1.1% (0.6%–1.7%), and for solar − 0.8% (0.5%–1.3%). The fastest growth of nuclear power occurred in Western Europe in the 1980s, a response by industrialized democracies to the energy supply crises of the 1970s. The European Union (EU), currently experiencing a similar energy supply shock, is planning to expand wind and solar at similarly fast rates. This illustrates that national contexts can impact the speed of technology diffusion at least as much as technology characteristics like cost, granularity, and complexity. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mitigation pathways, renewables grow much faster than nuclear due to their lower projected costs, though empirical evidence does not show that the cost is the sole factor determining the speed of diffusion. We demonstrate that expanding low-carbon electricity in Asia in line with the 1.5 °C target requires growth of nuclear power even if renewables increase as fast as in the most ambitious EU's plans. 2 °C-consistent pathways in Asia are compatible with replicating China's nuclear power plans in the whole region, while simultaneously expanding renewables as fast as in the near-term projections for the EU. Our analysis demonstrates the usefulness of empirically-benchmarked feasibility spaces for future technology projections.

Failing the formative phase: the global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets

E. Brutschin, A. Cherp, & J. Jewell. (2021). Failing the formative phase: the global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets. Energy Research & Social Science, 80, 102221. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102221

Understanding the role of technology characteristics and the context in the diffusion of new energy technologies is important for assessing feasibility of climate mitigation. We examine the historical adoption of nuclear power as a case of a complex large scale energy technology. We conduct an event history analysis of grid connections of first sizable commercial nuclear power reactors in 79 countries between 1950 and 2018. We show that the introduction of nuclear power can largely be explained by contextual variables such as the proximity of a country to a major technology supplier (‘ease of diffusion’), the size of the economy, electricity demand growth, and energy import dependence (‘market attractiveness’). The lack of nuclear newcomers in the early 1990s can be explained by the lack of countries with high growth in electricity demand and sufficient capacities to build their first nuclear power plant, either on their own or with international help. We also find that nuclear accidents, the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the advances made in competing technologies played only a minor role in nuclear technology failing to be established in more countries. Our analysis improves understanding of the feasibility of introducing contested and expensive technologies in a heterogenous world with motivations and capacities that differ across countries and by a patchwork of international relations. While countries with high state capacity or support from a major technology supplier are capable of introducing large-scale technologies quickly, technology diffusion to other regions might undergo significant delays due to lower motivations and capacities.

The international technological nuclear cooperation landscape: a new dataset and network analysis

J. Jewell, M. Vetier, & D. Garcia-Cabrera. (2019). The international technological nuclear cooperation landscape: a new dataset and network analysis. Energy Policy, 128, 838-852. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.12.024.

The pursuit of civil nuclear power, frequently justified in the name of national energy security, paradoxically entangles most states in long-term interdependencies with the few countries that can supply nuclear technologies. These interdependencies are insufficiently documented and poorly understood. This article presents and analyzes a new dataset of nuclear cooperation agreements signed or announced between 2000 and 2015. We find that Russia and the US dominate international technological nuclear cooperation, with the US’ dominance particularly prominent in safety and security and Russia’s in nuclear power plant construction, reactor and fuel supply, decommissioning and waste. When it comes to these technologies, Russia is the supplier in approximately half of all agreements; France, the US, China, Korea, and Japan together account for another 40%. All in all, six countries are suppliers in over 90% of all international nuclear agreements, a far higher supplier concentration than in oil and gas markets. These results show that the global future of nuclear power depends as much on international cooperation as on national motivations and capacities. Effective policies and institutions supporting the safe use of nuclear power should therefore be directed at managing its international as well as national aspects.

International political economy of nuclear energy

E. Brutschin & J. Jewell. (2018). International political economy of nuclear energy. Andreas Goldthau & Michael F. Keating & Caroline Kuzemko (ed.). Handbook of the International Political Economy of Energy and Natural Resources. Chapter 23, 322-341. Edward Elgar Publishing. Gated. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781783475636.00033.

The use of nuclear power has been driven by the motivation to meet growing electricity demand while avoiding dependence on imported fossil fuels and constrained by capacities to launch nuclear energy programmes. The chapter argues that tension between the two is a defining feature of the international political economy of nuclear energy. On the one hand, nuclear technology promises energy security and industrial modernisation. On the other hand, launching nuclear programmes can plunge countries into three forms of international dependence: on imported uranium, on production and disposal of nuclear fuel, and on the uneven capacities to manufacture nuclear reactors and construct nuclear power plants. The authors argue that international cooperation and competition profoundly shape how states deploy, expand and phase out their nuclear power programmes and brings together diverse international aspects of nuclear power which may increasingly shape the future of nuclear energy.

Comparing electricity transitions: a historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan

Cherp, A., Vinichenko, V., Jewell, J., Suzuki, M. & Antal, M. (2017). Comparing electricity transitions: a historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. Energy Policy, 101, 612-628. Open Access. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.10.044.

This paper contributes to understanding national variations in using low-carbon electricity sources by comparing the evolution of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan. It develops and applies a framework for analyzing low-carbon electricity transitions based on interplay of techno-economic, political and socio-technical processes. We explain why in the 1970s–1980s, the energy paths of the two countries were remarkably similar, but since the 1990s Germany has become a leader in renewables while phasing out nuclear energy, whereas Japan has deployed less renewables while becoming a leader in nuclear power. We link these differences to the faster growth of electricity demand and energy insecurity in Japan, the easier diffusion of onshore wind power technology and the weakening of the nuclear power regime induced by stagnation and competition from coal and renewables in Germany. We show how these changes involve the interplay of five distinct mechanisms which may also play a role in other energy transitions.

Introducing nuclear power in Turkey: a historic state strategy and future prospects

J. Jewell, & S. A. Ates. (2015). Introducing nuclear power in Turkey: a historic state strategy and future prospects. Energy Research & Social Science, 10, 273–282. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.07.011.

Turkey is currently in the middle of its sixth attempt over the last 60 years to introduce nuclear power. This paper analyzes Turkey’s past and present motivation, capacity and strategies to identify the factors which influence deployment of nuclear power and draw lessons for other nuclear newcomer countries. While existing literature points to a correlation between nuclear power, strong state involvement, centralized energy planning and the rhetoric linking energy to national prestige and security, we show that these factors are not sufficient for a successful nuclear program. We also show that autocratic rule and nuclear weapons aspirations can undermine rather than support the development of civilian nuclear power as it is often presumed in the literature. Turkey’s current strategy based on intergovernmental agreements with Russia and Japan is laced with irony since it is motivated by energy security considerations and yet relies on foreign entities for construction, ownership and operation of nuclear power plants as well as the development of human capacity. Although Ankara intends to build the third nuclear power plant with own resources this seems unlikely based on the South Korean and Japanese experience, both of which needed much more time and effort to localize the industry.

A nuclear-powered North Africa: just a desert mirage or is there something on the horizon?

J. Jewell. (2010). A nuclear-powered North Africa: just a desert mirage or is there something on the horizon? Energy Policy, 39 (8), 4445-4457. In Press, Corrected Proof. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.042.

All of the North African countries have plans to develop nuclear power. If successful, nuclear energy could supply up to 9-15% of all electricity consumption in the region by 2030. How realistic are these plans and under what conditions can they be implemented? This paper seeks to answer this question by analyzing the motivations and capacities for deploying nuclear energy in the five North African countries by examining both regional and national factors. These factors are compared to similar characteristics of the countries with existing nuclear power programs using a series of quantitative indicators. While all five countries have strong motivations to develop nuclear power, which result from the high growth rates in demand for electricity and energy security concerns, their financial and institutional capacities to deploy nuclear energy vary and are generally lower than in those countries which already operate nuclear power plants. Most likely, North Africa will need to rely on external assistance to implement its nuclear energy plans. The article identifies three scenarios of nuclear power development from the interplay between internal and external factors, particularly the success of renewable energy projects and the ability to attract international investment in nuclear power.

Ready for nuclear energy?: An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs

J. Jewell. (2011). Ready for nuclear energy? An assessment of capacities and motivations for launching new national nuclear power programs. Energy Policy, 39 (3), 1041–1055. Gated. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.041.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that as of July 2009 there were 52 countries interested in building their first nuclear power plant. This paper characterizes and evaluates these “Newcomer Countries” in terms of their capacity and motivations to develop nuclear power. It quantifies factors historically associated with the development of nuclear energy programs and then benchmarks the Newcomers against these data. Countries with established nuclear power programs, particularly where nuclear facilities are privately owned, are typically larger, wealthier and politically stable economies with high government effectiveness. Nuclear power was historically launched during periods of high electricity consumption growth. Other indicators for the potential of nuclear power include: the size of the national grid, the presence of international grid connections and security of fuel supply for electricity production. We identify 10 Newcomers which most closely resemble the Established Nuclear Power Countries and thus are most likely to deploy nuclear energy, 10 countries where the development of nuclear energy is uncertain due to high political instability, 14 countries with lower capacities where pursuing nuclear energy may require especially strong international cooperation and 18 countries where the development of nuclear power is less likely due to their significantly lower capacities and motivations.